| 基于蒙特卡洛法的抛锚撞击海管概率分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 尹丰,刘宇,邓宇林,刘延波.基于蒙特卡洛法的抛锚撞击海管概率分析[J].船海工程,2021(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 尹丰 刘宇 邓宇林 刘延波 |
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| 作者单位： | 中海油研究总院;哈尔滨工程大学船舶工程学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 工信部项目(2018GXB01-03-003)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对船舶抛锚撞击海底管道事故频发,撞击概率计算过程较复杂且适用范围有限的问题,对现有方法进行改进,基于蒙特卡洛方法建立抛锚统计试验模型,对某一条件下船舶抛锚对海底管道的撞击概率进行计算,结果表明:对现有方法进行改进或利用蒙特卡洛方法能较好地反映船舶抛锚对海底管道的撞击概率变化特性,可应用于危险区域的抛锚预警和海上禁锚区的设置。
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| 关 键 词： | 船锚 海底管道 撞击 概率 蒙特卡洛方法 |
Impact Probability Analysis Based on Monte-Carlo Method of Subsea Pipeline due to Anchoring |
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| Authors: | YIN Feng LIU Yu DENG Yu-lin LIU Yan-bo |
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| Institution: | (CNOOC Research Institute, Beijing 100028, China;College of Shipbuilding Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150000, China) |
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| Abstract: | In view of the frequent occurrence of ship anchoring and impinging on submarine pipelines,while the calculation of impinging probability is complex and its application scope is limited,the existing method was improved.The anchoring statistical test model was established based on Monte Carlo method to calculate the impinging probability of submarine pipeline.The results showed that by using the improved existing methods or the Monte Carlo method,the characteristics of impinging probability variation can be well reflected.It can be applied to the anchoring warning in the dangerous area and the setting of the prohibited anchorage area in the sea. |
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| Keywords: | anchor subsea pipeline impact probability Monte-Carlo method |
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