隧洞通航风险评价指标体系构建

针对隧洞船舶通航风险影响因素的复杂性、多层次性和不确定性的特点,以乌江构皮滩通航隧洞为例,采用鱼骨图分析法,找出隧洞通航风险的影响因素。应用层次分析法确定各指标的重要程度,结果表明,隶属于人为因素的人员失误仍是是隧洞通航安全问题的主导因素;子因素中改善的重点应集中在防止船舶超速,提升应急管理人员及现场处置人员应急处置能力,严格检查船舶适航与货物适运,确保监管设施设备及通风系统正常高效运营等方面。

Construction of Risk Assessment Index System of Ship in Navigable Tunnel

According to the characteristics of complexity,diversity and uncertainty about the influence factors of ship navigation risk in tunnel,taking the Gou Pitan tunnel as a sampling case,the influencing factors leading to navigation risk in tunnel were identified by adopting fishbone diagram method,and an assessment index system of navigation risk was determined.The analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method was used to obtain the significance level of each factor,and analyze the key factors leading to the risk.The results showed that the human error is also the dominant factor leading to navigation risk.The prevention emphasis of sub factors should be focus on preventing over-speed,improving the emergency response capacity,confirming the ship’s seaworthiness and cargo’s suitability,keeping the supervision and ventilation system normal and efficient operation.