南京市电动自行车发展趋势研究

结合南京电动车发展现状，对南京市电动车发展优势及劣势并对其发展趋势进行定性判断；对不同电动车发展政策下，各交通方式客流转移量进行交叉弹性分析；综合考虑影响电动自行车发展的各种影响因素，从管理者、使用者以及生产者的角度出发建立评价指标体系，并应用模糊评判法方法建立电动自行车的发展趋势评判模型。可为政府决策电动自行车的发展趋势提供一种思路。

Development Trend of Electric Bicycle in Nanjing

Combining with the development situation of the electric bicycle in Nanjing, the advantages and disadvantages of the electric bicycle＇s development are analyzed, while its development trend is forecasted. Then the passenger transferring volume among different traffic modes is conducted by the cross elasticity analysis under different development policies. Considering various influencing factors about the development of the electric bicycle synthetically, the author sets up an evaluation index system from the perspective of the governor, consumer and producer, and builds the evaluation model of the development trend of electric bicycles based on fuzzy evaluation. It also provides the thought for the government to decide on the development trend of the electric bicycle.