| 高速公路交通事件发生概率的短期预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 凌镭,王昊.高速公路交通事件发生概率的短期预测[J].交通标准化,2011(10):159-162. |
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| 作者姓名： | 凌镭 王昊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 江苏省交通规划设计院,江苏,南京,210019
2. 东南大学交通运输学院,江苏,南京,210096 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过分析由两个相邻的交通检测器观检测得到的实时交通流数据,建立一个可以估计交通事件发生概率的模型。该模型表明,交通事件发生的概率与稳定交通流中上游交通流密度所占的比例和上游、下游交通流的速度差这两个因素具有较大的相关性。该模型只需要利用基本的交通数据便可估算交通事件的发生概率,在高速公路的管理中有较大的应用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通事件预测 交通流理论 交通安全 |
Short Term Prediction for Occurrence Probability of Expressway Traffic Incidents |
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| LING Lei,WANG Hao.Short Term Prediction for Occurrence Probability of Expressway Traffic Incidents[J].Communications Standardization,2011(10):159-162. |
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| Authors: | LING Lei WANG Hao |
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| Institution: | LING Lei1,WANG Hao2(1.Jiangsu Provincial Communication Planning and Design Institute,Nanjing 210019,China,2.School of Transportation,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China) |
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| Abstract: | A model is proposed to estimate the probability of traffic incidents occurrence,which is achieved by analyzing the real time traffic flow data from two neighboring traffic detectors.The proposed model indicates that the probability of traffic incident occurrence is positively related to the ratio of the upstream traffic density to the steady traffic density,and the speed difference between the upstream traffic and the downstream traffic.The model only need to use the basic traffic data can be estimated prob... |
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| Keywords: | traffic incident prediction traffic flow theory traffic safety |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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