基于人工免疫机制的营运货车运行风险评价研究

为预防营运货车交通事故，动态监管营运货车提高其运输安全性，本文从营运货车道路交通事故调查报告中统计货车交通事故发生运行风险因素频率，提取营运货车运行风险关键因素，建立完整的营运货车运行风险指标体系。运用人工免疫思想，以营运货车运行风险评价指标等级值作为抗原向量，将人工免疫危险理论的信号处理机制及改进的树突细胞算法应用于营运货车风险评价，构建基于树突细胞算法的营运货车运行风险评价模型，并以云南省某运输集团的营运货车为例进行应用分析。研究结果表明：营运货车高风险的发生通常是多因素耦合的结果；基于人工免疫机制的营运货车运行风险评价模型可利用营运车辆监控平台实时数据，从动态实时的角度评价营运货车运行风险性；模型具有合理性和有效性，且有较高的准确率及较低的误报率，可为营运货车运行风险防控提供依据。

Commercial Truck Driving Risk Evaluation Based on Artificial Immune Mechanism

This study evaluates driving risks of commercial trucks to prevent traffic accidents and to monitor commercial trucks in real-time to improve the transportation safe. From the traffic accidents investigation reports, the study calculates the frequency of driving risk factors relevant to truck traffic accidents, extracts the key factors of commercial truck driving risks and establishes a driving risk indicator system for risk evaluation. The study applies the signal processing mechanism of the artificial immune danger theory and the improved dendritic cell algorithm to the commercial truck risk assessment, which uses the level value of the risk evaluation index as the antigen vector. The driving risk evaluation model is then developed based on dendritic cell algorithm, and the commercial truck data from a transportation group in Yunnan Province was used as the empirical analysis. The results indicate that the high driving risk of commercial trucks is usually the effects of multiple factors. The proposed model is able to evaluate the driving risks of commercial trucks using the real-time data from the monitoring platform. The model is reliable and effective, and produces high accuracy rate and low false alarm rate. It also provides a basis for the prevention and management of commercial trucks driving risks.