突发公共卫生事件持续期居民中长距离出行方式选择行为研究

为剖析突发公共事件持续期风险感知属性对居民中长距离出行方式选择行为的影响，基于非集计理论，构建风险感知差异的居民出行方式选择多元Logit模型.在2020年3月新冠肺炎疫情持续期，通过网络采集1 643份有效调查问卷，运用SPSS软件标定模型参数，获取突发公共事件持续期，影响居民出行选择的主要风险感知因素，并进行敏感性分析.结果表明：防控措施和防控措施了解程度对居民出行方式选择有显著影响；以航空运输为参考，途径站点暴露率增加对铁路运输方式的选择概率有负向影响，对公路运输方式的选择概率有正向影响；保持疫情持续期航空的低票价，以及加大航空运输防控措施的宣传可提高居民选择航空出行的概率.

Behavior of Long-distance Travel Mode Choice under the Duration of Public Health Emergencies

In order to analyze the effects of risk perception attribute on the long- distance travel mode choice behavior under the duration of public health emergencies, a multivariate Logit model is built for travel mode choice considering residents' risk perception difference. According to the 1 643 effective questionnaires collected from the internet during the COVID-19 in March 2020, the model parameters are calibrated using SPSS. The main risk perception factors affecting travelers' travel mode choices were obtained, and the sensitivity analysis of each factor was carried out. The results show that the prevention and control measures and the understanding of the measures have a significant influence on the choice of travel mode. Compared with air transportation, the increased exposure rate has a negative influence on the choice probability of railway transportation and a positive influence on the choice probability of road transportation. Keeping low air prices during the COVID- 19 and increasing publicity of prevention and control measures for air transport can improve the choice probability of air transportation.