考虑空间特征的货运方式选择行为模型

货运市场中铁路份额较低的一个重要原因是，铁路运输企业未能准确掌握托运人货运方式选择行为，并提供具有竞争力的货运服务。本文依据116家托运人的适应性行为调查数据，构建包含运输方式时间与费用，货物特征和选择惯性等属性的多项Logit模型及混合Logit模型，并引入空间特征与运输时间的交互项，揭示不同空间特征下运输时间对效用的差异化影响。结果表明：除运输时间和费用外，货物密度、选择惯性、公司性质均显著影响货运方式选择行为；由于不同空间区域的运距、货物品类(价值)和经济发展水平等因素差异，起点相同但目的地区域不同的货运时间价值存在显著差异，华东和华南区域最高，中北部地区较低。

Freight Mode Choice Behavior Model Incorporating Spatial Characteristics

One important reason for the low share of railway transportation in the freight market is that railway service providers fail to accurately grasp shippers' mode choice behavior and thus cannot provide competitive freight service. Based on the 116 shippers' behavior data from adaptive experiments, this paper constructs a multinomial Logit model and a mixed Logit model incorporating time, cost, cargo characteristics and choice inertia, which also introduces the interaction between spatial characteristics and time to reveal the effects of time on utility under different spatial characteristics. The results show that, in addition to transportation time and cost, the density of cargo, choice inertia and shippers' characteristics affect the freight mode choice behavior significantly. Because of the differences in distance, cargo type (value) and economic development level, the freight values of time with the same origin region but different destination regions are significantly different. The values were the highest in Eastern China and Southern China and the lowest in Central and Northern regions.