Modelling the dynamics of bus use in a changing travel environment using panel data |
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Authors: | Kiron Chatterjee |
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Institution: | (1) Centre for Transport and Society, University of the West of England, Bristol, BS16 1QY, UK |
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Abstract: | Panel data offers the potential to represent the influence on travel choices of changing circumstances, past history and persistent
individual differences (unobserved heterogeneity). A four-wave panel survey collected data on the travel choices of residents
before and after the introduction of a new bus rapid transit service. The data shows gradual changes to bus use over the four
waves, implying time was required for residents to become aware of the new service and to adapt to it. Ordered response models
are estimated for bus use over the survey period. The results show that the influence of level of service (LOS) is underestimated
if unobserved heterogeneity is not taken into account. The delayed response to the new service is able to be well represented
by including LOS as a lagged variable. Current bus use is found to be conditioned on past bus use, but with additional influence
of lagged LOS and unobserved heterogeneity. It is shown how different model specifications generate different evolution patterns
with the most realistic predictions arising from a model which takes into account lagged responses to change in LOS and unobserved
heterogeneity. The paper demonstrates the feasibility of developing panel data models that can be applied to forecasting the
effect of interventions in the travel environment. Longer panels—encompassing periods of both stability and change—are required
to support future efforts at modelling travel choice dynamics. |
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