舰船工程风险演变机理和建模分析

为增强舰船工程风险管理的针对性与有效性,研究了舰船工程风险的演变机理,讨论了舰船工程中的各种风险成分及其相互关系.通过定性分析表明,随着舰船工程阶段的推移,不仅总的风险度是逐渐降低的,而且各种风险成分占总风险的比例也是不断变化的.在此基础上又通过建立数学模型的方法给出了舰船工程风险的演变模型与函数关系,并通过举例给出了风险演变和转化的趋势,进一步验证了定性分析的正确性.本文的研究成果为舰船工程风险的管理提供了理论依据.

The research on evolvement and modeling of risk in navy vessel engineering

For advance the risk management in navy vessel,the paper study the evolvement of risk in navy vessel engieneering. All components of risk in navy vessel engineering and the relationship among the components are discussed. It is pointed that,during the development of navy vessel,not only total risk degree is reduced,but also the persent of each risk component is changed at the same time. On the basis,the dynamic evolvement modes and the functions are presented. By an example,the risk components evolvement an...