Sensitivity-based uncertainty analysis of a combined travel demand model |
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| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322-4110, USA;3. Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China;1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China;2. Department of Mathematics, School of Sciences, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221116, China;3. School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China;4. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, Thailand;5. Institute of Fundamental Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand;1. Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, China;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hong Kong |
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| Abstract: | Travel demand forecasting is subject to great uncertainties. A systematic uncertainty analysis can provide insights into the level of confidence on the model outputs, and also identify critical sources of uncertainty for enhancing the robustness of the travel demand model. In this paper, we develop a systematic framework for quantitative uncertainty analysis of a combined travel demand model (CTDM) using the analytical sensitivity-based method. The CTDM overcomes limitations of the sequential four-step procedure since it is based on a single unifying rationale. The analytical sensitivity-based method requires less computational effort than the sampling-based method. Meanwhile, the uncertainties stemming from inputs and parameters can be treated separately so that the individual and collective effects of uncertainty on the outputs can be clearly assessed and quantified. Numerical examples are finally used to demonstrate the proposed sensitivity-based uncertainty analysis method for the CTDM. |
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| Keywords: | Uncertainty analysis Sensitivity analysis Nonlinear program Combined travel demand model |
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