基于ARMA模型的公交枢纽站客流量预测方法研究

分析了城市公交客流量预测的必要性,提出了运用时间序列模型进行短期预测的方法;以城市公交短期交通特征为基础,设计了公交站点的ARMA短期客流预测模型;研究了单线路公交站点客流传统行为,构建了重点区域的枢纽站总客流实时预测模型,并采用上海市五角场枢纽站客流数据对比验证了文中模型的可行性,提出了枢纽站公交调度的优化建议。

Method of Hub Station Passenger Flow Forecasting Based on ARMA Model

After the necessity of estimating passenger flow was analyzed,a short-term forecasting method based on time series was proposed.For the characteristics of urban short-term traffic,a passenger flow forecast model at public stations based on ARMA was designed.Research on the traditional behaviors of passenger flow in a single line was conducted and a real-time prediction model in the transportation hub station in key areas was established.According to the feasibility of the model using the passenger flow data of Wujiaochang in Shanghai,an optimization system for public traffic dispatching in the hub was proposed.