基于PEMS的MOBILE与COPERT排放模型对比研究

为研究符合我国国情的机动车尾气排放宏观模型，本文首先系统地介绍了MOBILE与COPERT模型的算法原理、特点及应用；然后描述了车载尾气检测设备（PEMS）的数据采集及分析方法，并利用车载尾气设备检测的实测数据对两模型进行了参数校正；最后从排放因子和道路等级角度将两模型输出的预测值与实测值进行了对比分析. 结果表明，在测试车辆总行驶周期内以及各道路等级下，COPERT模型的NOx、HC和CO排放因子预测值较MOBILE模型的预测结果与实测值更为接近；在测试车辆总行驶周期内，前者误差比后者分别小19.2%、40.8%和22.0%. 最后得出结论:在预测中国机动车尾气排放时，COPERT模型较MOBILE模型更为适用.

Comparative Study of MOBILE and COPERT Emission Models Based on PEMS

In order to investigate macro-scale vehicle emission models suitable for China, this paper systematic introduces the principles, characteristics and applications of the MOBILE and COPERT models at first, then describes the methods of data collecting and dealing of PEMS equipment, and finally modifies the models’ input parameters based on the data collected by using PEMS equipment. The emission factors for different road types from the two models are compared with the measurements from real-world tests. The results show that, during the whole vehicle driving cycle and on all classified roads, the predicted emission factors of NOx, HC and CO from the COPERT Model are closer to the measured values than those from the MOBILE Model. Specifically the errors of the former are 19.2%, 40.8% and 22.0% less than the errors of the latter during the whole vehicle driving cycle. In the end, it comes into a conclusion that COPERT model is more suitable for predicting vehicle emission in China than MOBILE model.