高速公路边坡风险分析与应用

通过对高速公路边坡风险源的分析,总结出6个主要的风险因素：降雨、边坡形态、地下水、地质构造、风化作用和振动作用,并得到了6个风险因素的权重。基于模糊综合评价法将6个风险因素分别划分为5个模糊等级,建立因素集。把风险发生概率和风险损失建立为5个等级的评价集,运用Karwowski隶属度函数推导得到各风险因素对风险发生概率和损失的评价矩阵,分别对高速公路边坡风险发生的概率和损失进行了评估,基于风险评价矩阵得到风险等级大小。依托广河高速公路边坡工程,对其风险发生概率和损失进行了评估,根据风险接受准则得到该边坡工程风险等级大小,并与实际工程进行对比,同时提出了相应的风险控制工程措施。

Risk Analysis and Application Research for Expressway Side Slopes

Based on the analysis of risk sources on the side slope, six major risk factors are summed up ： rainfall, slope morphology, groundwater, geological structure, weathering and vibration effects, by the way, the weights of the six risk factors are obtained. Six risk factors are divided into five fuzzy levels by the way of fuzzy evaluation, and then the factor set is built. The risk probability and risk of loss are created as five levels of evaluation set. The risk probability and loss evaluation matrix are derived using Karwowski membership function for each risk factor, and the probability and loss of the risk occurrence on expressway slope are evaluated respectively. Then, the risk rating is obtained by risk assessment matrix. At last, the results of this study are applied on Guanghe expressway engineering. The probability and loss of the risk are assessed, and then the risk level of slope is obtained according to the risk acceptance criteria, which is com- pared with the actual project. Meanwhile, the corresponding risk control engineering measures are proposed.