新冠肺炎疫情下武汉封城令对交通流的影响——以浙江省为例

为研究新冠肺炎疫情下武汉封城令对交通流的影响,基于新冠肺炎疫情期间浙江省移动手机漫游数据,采用数据挖掘和回归分析等方法,分析了交通流的时空分布及其与武汉封城令的关系。结果表明,武汉封城令发布后,浙江—湖北每日交通流量和疫区每日新增感染人数满足自然界的Taylor定律,即交通量的自然对数和疫区每日新增感染人数的自然对数线性负相关;人们往往倾向于在“不得不”离开的状态下逃离危险区域,而武汉封城令和紧急状态令对人口的出行影响具有1d的时间滞后性,其短期出行峰值持续时间为3d左右;政府发布武汉封城令使疫区交通出行量出现短期增长,但长期来看,使人们的交通出行更加谨慎,降低了流行病大范围传播的风险。据此,在全球新冠肺炎疫情加剧的形势下,建议政府部门可在海外各国疫情紧急发布状态后的1～3d内,实施海外输入交通流严格管控,并至少持续一周时间。

Effect of Wuhan Lockdown on Traffic Flow in COVID-19 Epidemic: Evidence from Zhejiang

In the purpose of analyzing the effect of Wuhan lockdown on traffic flow, data mining and regression analysis method were used to analyze the space and time distribution of traffic flow and its connection with Wuhan lockdown based on the mobile phone roaming data in Zhejiang province during the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) epidemic in China. The results showed that the traffic flow between Zhejiang and Hubei followed Taylor law in natural world, which means that the natural logarithm of traffic flow is negatively linear related to the natural logarithm of number of new infections in Hubei. Besides, people always tend to evacuate out of dangerous area "in the last minute" even Wuhan lockdown order was implemented in advance. Further, the impact of Wuhan lockdown order had a phenomenon of one day delay on "evacuation" from Hubei and the outflow peak lasted three days. Generally speaking, Wuhan lockdown imposed by the government resulted in a short-term increase in traffic outflow in the affected area, but it decreased the long-time traffic outflow from the epidemic area, which reduced the wide spread possibility and the risk of COVID-19. Finally, some suggestions were proposed that in the intensified situation of international COVID-19 epidemic, the government should implement strict control of oversea imported traffic flow within 1 to 3 days after the emergency declaration of the epidemic situation in oversea countries, and such control should be lasted at least one week.