| 基于经验贝叶斯法的道路事故预测分析研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李政,程建川.基于经验贝叶斯法的道路事故预测分析研究[J].交通与计算机,2011,29(4):104-107. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李政 程建川 |
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| 作者单位： | 东南大学交通学院 南京210096;江苏省现代道路交通安全设计与评价联合培养研究生示范基地 南京210005 |
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| 摘 要： | 传统事故预测模型存在对原始数据的序列性、分布性等方面高要求,以及预测精度的不足,利用经验贝叶斯法对先验信息（原始事故数据）进行调整,得到后验信息以形成更好的预测效果。就交通事故数据进行事前与事后累计统计分析,并对比其他预测模型证明经验贝叶斯法的预测结果更接近实际情形,基于经验贝叶斯法的此类模型可以提高小样本数据预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 事故多发段 历史数据 经验贝叶斯 事故预测 |
Accident Prediction Analysis Based on EB Method |
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| LI Zheng,CHENG Jianchuan.Accident Prediction Analysis Based on EB Method[J].Computer and Communications,2011,29(4):104-107. |
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| Authors: | LI Zheng CHENG Jianchuan |
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| Institution: | LI Zheng1,2 CHENG Jianchuan1,2(School of Transportation,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China)1(Jiangsu University-Enterprise Base for Graduate Education on Roadway Safety Design and Evaluation,Nanjing 210005,China)2 |
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| Abstract: | The traditional accident prediction method demands a high reliability on the order and distribution of original crash data,but has unsatisfactory prediction.In this paper,a statistical approach-Empirical Bayesian(EB) method was used to obtain a better prediction.By adjusting priori information(original data),EB method can get a posteriori information to form a better fine estimate.With the help of before-and-after analysis,the accuracy and validity were demonstrated through an actual numerical experiment.Th... |
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| Keywords: | hazardous sections historic data empirical Bayes accident prediction |
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