基于云模型和熵权的青岛港邮轮航行安全评价

邮轮风险系数高于一般的海上运输形式,其安全问题越来越成为业内的关注热点.结合实际条件,将青岛港邮轮航行安全评价的影响因素分为人、船舶和环境3个一级指标及相应的二级指标,建立邮轮航行安全评价体系.将云模型应用于邮轮航行安全评价中,实现评价因素值与评语的不确定映射;用熵权法确定邮轮航行安全评价指标之间的相对权重.以青岛港邮轮为例,利用基于云模型和熵权法的评价方法完成了邮轮航行安全评价.结果表明,研究对象邮轮的安全等级云模型云滴主要分布在期望 EX=83.73附近,评价结果为"比较安全".该方法能兼顾等级概念的模糊性与随机性. 

An Analysis of Navigation Safety of Cruise Ships Based on Cloud Model and Entropy Weights:A Case Study of Qingdao Port

Navigation safety of cruise ships is one of the hot issues as its risk level is higher than other types of mar-itime transportation.According to navigational conditions,factors for safety evaluation of cruise ships at Qingdao port are classified into three first-grade indices:human,ship,and environment.Each first-grade index is further divided into sec-ond-grade indices.A cloud model is used to evaluate navigation safety of cruise ships in order to perform uncertainty map-ping analysis between evaluation factors and comments.The entropy weight method is used to define the weights of indi-ces.One cruise ship at Qingdao port is selected as a case study to apply the approach based on the cloud model and the en-tropy weight method.The results show that the drops of the cloud model for the target cruise are mainly distributed in EX=83.73,followed the scope of"relatively safe".This approach reconciles both fuzziness and randomness.Its intuition and effectiveness presents a new insight to analyze safety problems of cruise ships.