长江流域航运与水环境协调发展模型

为促进长江流域航运与水环境的协调发展,利用系统分析方法和系统动力学模型,建立了长江流域航运与水环境协调发展模型,对各种宏观调控政策和措施效应进行了仿真模拟分析。模拟结果表明,计算指标模拟值与实际值基本吻合,最大相对误差为12.9%,表明模型能较好地模拟长江流域航运与水环境协调发展系统;航运污染主要来源于船舶事故污染和船员生活污染,占总污染90%以上;人口、水环境、航运及工农业协调增长模式有助于水环境质量的持续改善;船舶事故应急管理水平的提高是航运污染治理的关键。

Sustainable development model of shipping and water environment in Yangtze River valley

In order to accelerate the sustainable development of shipping and water environment in Yangtze River valley, a dynamic sustainable development model was constructed by using system analysis method and system dynamics model, the effects of different types of controlling policies and managing methods were simulated. Simulation result shows that the simulation values of sustainable development indices are close to their real values, the maximum error is 12.9%, the model can effectively simulate the sustainable development of shipping and water environment in Yangtze River valley; almost 90% of shipping pollution is usually caused by ship accidents and crew living garbages; the comprehensive development of population, water environment, shipping, industry and agriculture is helpful to improving water environment; it is the key to pay more attention to improve the management level of ship accident emergency decision. 2 tabs, 6 figs, 10 refs.