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交通尾气排放宏观模型是进行广域尾气排放估测的重要工具,其功能是计算国家和区域范围内的有交通排放产生的排放因子与排放清单。目前,中国尚缺乏自己的宏观尾气排放模型,利用国外模型进行尾气排放估算误差较大。基于国内自己的尾气排放数据,利用国外的部分模型数据作为必要的补充,提出并实现了中国宏观尾气排放模型的建模方法与程序设计。首先,在总结国外机动车尾气排放模型优缺点的基础上,确定基于中国城市交通环境的机动车尾气排放宏观模型的目标、结构和建模方法,并对模型关键模块的数据获取、数据分析以及计算流程进行了详细的研究。其次,利用Visual Basic对模型进行了程序开发。最后,对北京市2008年尾气排放对交通环境的影响进行预测,并将其预测结果与MOBILE预测结果进行对比分析。

Development and Application of Macroscopic Emission Model

The macroscopic traffic emission model is a useful tool in the wide-area emission assessment, which is typically used to calculate and develop the national or regional emission factors and inventories. China is still in the absence of its own emission model. Using models of other countries may result in substantial errors in the emission estimation. This study is to develop and program a macroscopic emission model for China based on the emission data collected in China, supplemented by some modeling data of other countries. On the basis of a comprehensive review of existing macroscopic emission models, this paper first develops the goals, structure, and modeling method of the macroscopic emission model in traffic environment for China. Then, it provides a detailed analysis on the data collection, data analysis, and calculation process for the key modules of such a model. Subsequently, it implements the model using Visual Basic language. Finally, it estimates the emissions for Beijing in 2008 with the developed model, which are also compared with results from the MOBILE emission model.