基于反潜潜艇声呐探测的潜艇被发现概率算法研究

  目的  基于水下结构体自身振动数据及被动声呐方程，提出对自身被探测状态及最大被探测距离评估的方法，以解决水下结构体难以快速估计声源级和评估被探测状态的问题。  方法  采用传递路径分析（OTPA）方法并结合水下目标自噪声数据对自身声源级进行实时预报，利用奇异值分解（SVD）和主分量分析方法（PCA）消除测量数据串扰导致的误差，以及结合声波水下传播特性和传播环境，在探测模型中对当前环境下水下结构体的被探测状态和最大被探测距离进行评估。  结果  所提探测模型经湖上试验得到了验证。
结果表明水下结构体声源级的平均估计误差小于2 dB，被探测状态及最大被探测距离的评估值在绝大部分频段内与实测结果吻合。  结论  研究结果可为掌握水下结构体自身声隐身态势提供依据。

Study on algorithm of counter-detection probability of submarine based on enemy submarine sonar detection

  Objective   Based on the vibration data of underwater structures and passive sonar equations, a method for evaluating the detected state and maximum detected distance of underwater structures is proposed, thereby solving the problem in which it is difficult to quickly estimate the sound source level and evaluate the detected state of underwater structures.   Methods  The operational transfer path analysis (OTPA) method is used to forecast the self-noise level of underwater targets in real time. Singular value decomposition （SVD）and principal component analysis (PCA) are used to eliminate errors such as the crosstalk of measurement data.
Combined with the propagation characteristics and environments of underwater sound waves, the detected state and maximum detected distance of underwater structures in the current environment are evaluated by the detection model.  Results  The validity of the detection model is demonstrated in a lake test which determines that it has an average error of less than 2 dB, and the estimated detected state and maximum detected distance are in good agreement with the measurement results in most frequency bands.   Conclusion  This study can provide a basis for assessing the acoustic stealth situation of underwater structures.