| 基于分段外推法的城市汽车保有量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨伟,张卫华,徐华兵.基于分段外推法的城市汽车保有量预测[J].交通科技与经济,2010,12(2):9-11,15. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨伟 张卫华 徐华兵 |
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| 作者单位： | 合肥工业大学,交通运输工程学院,安徽,合肥,230009 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(090414162) |
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| 摘 要： | 汽车保有量的预测是城市交通规划的一项基础性工作，是制定各种交通需求管理措施的重要依据。分析影响城市汽车保有量的因素，将城市划分成不同的交通小区，并建立相应的评价模型对各小区进行综合评价。同时利用某一小区以往汽车保有量资料，建立基于分段外推法的城市汽车保有量预测模型，为城市汽车保有量的近期预测提供有效方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 汽车保有量 交通小区 回归分析 预测 |
Forecasting of Urban Vehicle Ownership Based on Sub-extrapolation Method |
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| YANG Wei,ZHANG Wei-hua,XU Hua-bing.Forecasting of Urban Vehicle Ownership Based on Sub-extrapolation Method[J].Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications,2010,12(2):9-11,15. |
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| Authors: | YANG Wei ZHANG Wei-hua XU Hua-bing |
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| Institution: | School of Transportation Engineering/a>;Hefei University of Technology/a>;Hefei 230009/a>;China |
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| Abstract: | The forecast of vehicle ownership is a basic work to urban transportation planning and also is an important basis for urban to make a variety of travel demand management measures.By analyzing the effect to the urban vehicle ownership that divided the city into different traffic areas and established the corresponding evaluation model for a comprehensive evaluation of each district.At the same time,used the past car ownership information of a district,we established the forecasting of urban vehicle ownership... |
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| Keywords: | urban vehicle ownership traffic area regression analysis forecasting |
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