湿陷性黄土地区路基沉降的优性组合预测

湿陷性黄土地区路基的沉降预测是铁路路基建设中的一个重要课题,通过分析实测数据来预测沉降是实际工程中较多采用的方法.单一的预测方法各有其适用性,同时也存在着不足,据此提出既能综合利用多种预测方法提供的信息又能提高预测精度的组合预测.采用以有效度最大为准则的优性组合预测,并通过对郑西铁路客运专线路基沉降实测数据的分析,说明优性组合预测的有效性及加权系数的时变特性.

Superior Combination Forecasting Settlement of Embankment in the Collapsibile Loess Region

The settlement prediction is an important problem to embankment design and construction in the collapsibile loess region.The normal prediction methods based on observation data have different applicabilities and disadvantages,so the combination forecasting can synthetically utilize the information provided by different methods to improve the precision of prediction.The superior combination forecasting based on forecasting effective measure is adopted in this article.A case study is carried out to illustrate the validity of superior combination forecasting and the time-variant character of weight coefficient.