| 基于遍历灰色模型的城市生活需水量预测研究与应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘建林,张国珍. 基于遍历灰色模型的城市生活需水量预测研究与应用[J]. 兰州交通大学学报, 2011, 0(3): 141-144 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘建林 张国珍 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州交通大学环境与市政工程学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然基金(51068014); 长江学者和创新团队发展计划(IRT0966) |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍遍历灰色模型T-GM(1，1)的原理及建模方法，以昆明市1995～2005年城市生活用水量为原始数据建立遍历灰色模型T-GM(1,1)，运用后验差对模型进行精度检验，其模型拟合精度高、精度等级为一级.利用所建模型对昆明市2006～2008年的生活需水量进行预测，预测结果与实际用水量非常相近，相对误差最大仅为0.81...
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| 关 键 词： | 遍历灰色模型 基点灰色模型 城市生活需水量 预测 |
Study and Application of Urban Water Demand Prediction Based on Traversal Grey Model |
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| LIU Jian-lin,ZHANG Guo-zhen. Study and Application of Urban Water Demand Prediction Based on Traversal Grey Model[J]. Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University, 2011, 0(3): 141-144 |
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| Authors: | LIU Jian-lin ZHANG Guo-zhen |
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| Affiliation: | LIU Jian-lin,ZHANG Guo-zhen(School of Environmental and Municipal Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China) |
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| Abstract: | The modeling principle of Traversal Grey Model,T-GM(1,1)and the recognition method of model parameter were presented.Taking Kunming City as a case,a T-GM(1,1)model was established based on the data of city water demand for domestic and public use from 1998 to 2005.The precision test of posterior difference examination showed that the fitting has high precision.The model was applied to the prediction of water demand for domestic and public use in Kunming City from 2006 to 2020.The result indicates that the b... |
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| Keywords: | Traversal Grey Model point-based grey model city water demand for domestic and public use prediction |
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