Individual versus mass transportation: feasibility of substitution

This paper is addressed to the question of social costs and social benefits (primarily environmental) which might derive from a large‐scale substitution of so‐called mass‐transit for the present, largely private, system of automotive transportation. Energy consumption and emissions are compared for the two basic alternatives and several variants. Varying degrees of physiological tolerance to pollutants are taken into account, in an attempt to develop comparable weight‐factors for different types of emissions. It is suggested that if automobiles succeed in meeting the 1975/76 emission standards set by the Clean Air Act of 1970, rail rapid transit will probably offer no advantage (in environmental terms) unless electric power is available from virtually non‐polluting sources (e.g., natural gas or nuclear plants). Economic implications of large‐scale substitution are examined, and it is noted that such substitution would involve major restructuring of our society as a whole. However, more intensive use of mass transit in central cities, possibly in conjunction with various measures to discourage the use of private automobiles in very congested areas is feasible and likely.