铁路旅客乘车选择行为及其效用

通过分析铁路客流构成和旅客列车分类,将铁路旅客乘车选择行为的影响因素归结为旅客主体特性、列车特性和随机因素,构造可以直观描述列车特性的时间、费用和舒适度3个因素之间关系的曲线图。采用随机效用理论建立铁路旅客乘车选择行为非集计模型,给出个体旅客对列车选择概率的多项Logit模型,并通过影响因素选择及参数标定等设计求解方法。以某区段不同收入旅客群的乘车选择行为为例进行计算分析。从计算结果可以看出:旅客收入水平越高,考虑时间、舒适度因素就越多,受费用因素影响越小,更趋向于选择乘车时间较短、舒适度较高的高档次列车。计算所得2个旅客群对不同列车的选择概率结果具有合理性,表明模型与算法贴切地反映了铁路旅客乘车选择行为的特征。

Boarding Choice Behavior and Its Utility of Railway Passengers

The passenger flow structure and train sorts are analyzed,and the influence factors of the railway passenger boarding choice behavior are reduced to passenger subjective characteristics,train objective characteristics and random factors.Specially a curve graph that directly illustrates the relationship among time,cost and comfort level of train characteristics is built up.A disaggregate model of railway passengers boarding choice behavior based on the random utility theory is set up,also the multi-item Logit model for individual passenger train choice probability is brought forward,and a solution method is designed by choosing influence factors and demarcating parameters.Different income-level passengers boarding choice behavior in a certain railway section is calculated and analyzed.From the results,it appears that the higher income the passengers have,the more factors about the time and conformability and the less cost factor are considered,therefore the higher level trains with less time,and higher conformability and higher cost are chosen.The probability choice results for different trains about the two passengers groups by calculating are reasonable.It is proved that the model and algorithm reflect the characteristics of the railway passengers boarding behavior relevantly.