| 基于灰色自回归模型的船舶流量预测方法 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 郑友银,徐志京. 基于灰色自回归模型的船舶流量预测方法[J]. 船海工程, 2011, 40(1). DOI: 10.3963/j.issn.1671-7953.2011.01.037 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 郑友银 徐志京 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 上海海事大学信息工程学院,上海,200135 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 上海市教委支出预算项目(No.20080098No.20090131) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 结合灰色模型和自回归AR(p)模型,提出两种模型组合的灰色自回归模型,根据实际的船舶交通流量数据,分别运用灰色模型、自回归AR(p)模型和灰色自回归模型,对某港口船舶交通流量的进行预测,通过计算和Matlab仿真,结果表明灰色自回归模型预测精度较高,证明了该模型的可行性。
|
| 关 键 词： | 灰色理论 自回归模型 船舶流量 预测系统 |
Prediction Method of Ship Flow Based on Grey-Autoregression Model |
| |
| ZHENG You-yin,XU Zhi-jing. Prediction Method of Ship Flow Based on Grey-Autoregression Model[J]. Ship &Ocean Engineering, 2011, 40(1). DOI: 10.3963/j.issn.1671-7953.2011.01.037 |
| |
| Authors: | ZHENG You-yin XU Zhi-jing |
| |
| Affiliation: | ZHENG You-yin,XU Zhi-jing(Dept.of Information Engineering,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 200015,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | The gray model was combined with autoregressive AR(p) model and the grey-autoregression model to propose two prediction models.The gray model,autoregressive AR(p) model and grey-autoregression model were used separately to forecast ship traffic flow of a port.The calculation and simulation results in Matlab showed that the grey-autoregression model has high accuracy. |
| |
| Keywords: | gray theory auto-regression model ship flow prediction system |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
