综合运输通道旅客出行方式选择行为研究

针对综合运输通道内旅客出行距离长、频率低的特点,基于非集计理论和纯选择行为抽样调查法建立综合运输通道内旅客选择行为的Logit模型.对京沪运输通道内旅客选择行为随出发时间和出行距离变化情况的模拟表明,中长距离的旅客对综合运输通道内客运产品的选择受出发时间影响较大,客运需求结构在不同时段存在显著差异,而短距离旅客的出行方式选择行为受出发时间影响较小,此外各种运输方式的典型客运产品均存在优势运输距离范围.与京沪运输通道客运产品结构现状对比的结果表明,由综合运输通道内旅客出行方式选择行为模型得到的结果能够反映通道客运需求结构的现状,并且能够解释由客运供需矛盾引发的购票困难等现象,从而为综合运输通道客运基础设施的科学规划和客运产品的合理设计提供理论依据.

Research on Passenger Choice Behavior of Trip Mode in Comprehensive Transportation Corridor

In accordance of the characteristics of passenger long travel distance and low frequency in comprehensive transportation corridor,Logit model was built for passenger choice behavior in comprehensive transportation corridor based on disaggregate theory and pure choice behavior sampling survey method.Simulation was carried through on the changes of passenger choice behavior with the departure time and trip distance in Beijing and Shanghai transportation corridor.Simulation results show that,for middle and long distance passengers in comprehensive transportation corridor,their choices for transport products are greatly influenced by departure time.There are significant differences in the structures of passenger transport demand at various period of time.For short distance passengers,their choice behaviors for trip mode are less affected by departure time.In addition,the typical transport products of various transportation modes have their own range of dominant transportation distance.Compared with the current situation of passenger transport product structure in Beijing and Shanghai transportation corridor,the results obtained from the model for passenger choice behavior of trip mode in comprehensive transportation corridor can reflect the current situation of passenger transport demand structure in this corridor and can explain the phenomenon of difficulty in buying tickets resulted from the contradiction between supply and demand for passenger transport.Accordingly,theoretical basis is provided for the scientific planning of infrastructure as well as the rational design of passenger transport products in comprehensive transportation corridor.