综合运输网络下的公路建设项目交通量预测方法研究

传统公路建设项目交通量预测方法往往从公路交通系统自身的角度出发,割裂了公路交通与其他运输方式之间的复杂关系,因而影响了预测结果的可靠性。本文从综合运输的角度出发,提出了基于综合运输网络的公路建设项目交通量预测方法,并对预测方法涉及的具体模型进行了讨论。应用该方法可以客观反映公路与其他运输方式之间的作用关系、准确描述交通量的转移规律、充分把握建设项目在综合运输网络中的作用和地位,使预测结果更加合理、有效。

Research on Forecasting Method of Traffic Volume of Highway Construction Project Based on Comprehensive Transportation Network

Traditional traffic volume forecasting method of highway construction project always focuses on the characteristics of highway transportation system itself,and neglects the relationship between highway and other transportation modes.Therefore,un-negligible problems appear during the forecast process.From comprehensive transportation point of view,a traffic volume forecasting method of highway project based on comprehensive network is put forward,and the models used in this method are analyzed as well.This method could objectively reveal the relationship between highway transportation and other modes and exactly describe the transferring rule of traffic volume,and confirm the function and status of the highway project in the comprehensive network,so that the forecast could be more rational and efficient.