| 山区高速公路连续长下坡路段车辆制动失灵事故发生概率预测模型的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 马亮,周应新,杨云东,陈华斌,陆家毕,王春海.山区高速公路连续长下坡路段车辆制动失灵事故发生概率预测模型的研究[J].交通标准化,2009(21):80-83. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马亮 周应新 杨云东 陈华斌 陆家毕 王春海 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]北京中路安交通科技有限公司,北京100071 [2]云南蒙新高速公路建设指挥部,云南昆明650011 [3]云南省交通规划设计研究院,云南昆明650011 [4]云南第三公路桥梁工程有限责任公司,云南昆明650228 [5]宜昌宏发路桥建设有限责任公司,湖北宜昌443000 |
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| 摘 要： | 山区高速公路连续长下坡路段是重特大恶性交通事故的多发段。通过对车辆运行特征中的多种因素进行分析．以多条高速公路连续长下坡路段的实际制动失灵事故资料为依据，建立制动失灵事故发生概率预测模型，对其验证表明，该模型拟合程度较好，安全性好，可有效预测高速公路连续长下坡路段的制动失控事故。
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| 关 键 词： | 热衰退 概率预测 回归分析 |
Occurrence Probability Prediction Model of Brake Malfunction on a Succession of Downhill Highways in Mountainous Regions |
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| Institution: | MA Liang, ZHOU Ying-xin, YANG Yun-dong, CHEN Hua-bin, LU Jia-bi, WANG Chun-hai (1.Beijing Zhonglu＇an Traffic Science and Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing 100071, China; 2.Yunnan Mengxin Expressway Construction Headquarters, Kunming 650011, China; 3.Yunnan Provincial Traffic Plan Designs Research Institute, Kunming 650011, China; 4.Yunnan No.3 Road ＆ Bridge Engineering Co., Ltd., Kunming 650228, China; 5.Yichang Hongfa Road ＆ Bridge Construction Co., Ltd., Yichang 443000, China) |
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| Abstract: | Significant or deadly traffic accidents occur in a succession of downhill highways in mountainous regions with high frequency. It analyzes the operational characteristic of vehicle and establishes its probability prediction model based upon the data of brake malfunction in many continuous downhill highways. The validation shows that this model has excellent fitting degree and is safe, can predict effectively brake malfunction on a succession of downhill highway. |
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| Keywords: | heat fading probability prediction regression analysis |
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