用新观点剖析2009年一季度中国车市

2009年一季度我国汽车市场能否走出“谷底”，以及何时走出“谷底”是目前车市焦点，文章用“车市波动分析法”分析中国2009年一季度汽车市场。对一季度车市取得的进展和成绩进行回顾，然后用1个系数（扩张系数）2种效应（扩张效应，收缩效应）为工具，对存在问题进行深层次剖析。对如何正视和解决走出“谷底”问题提出了明确观点：指出一季度我国车市仍在“谷底”运行，到2009年下半年有望冲出“谷底”平稳回升。

From a New Perspective Analyzing Automobile Market in the First Quarter of 2009 in China

Whether and when automobile market in China is able to witness the revitalization in the first quarter of 2009 remains the focus of the current automobile market. This paper, adopting the analysis method of ＂automobile fluctuation＂, analyzes automobile market in the first quarter in China. And then, this paper retrospects the progress that has been achieved in the first quarter in 2009. And then, an expanding coefficient and two effects （expansion effect and shrinking effect） are used to deeply analyze the existing problems. This paper clearly explains how to face up to and walk out of the slacking market, pointing out that automobile market recession remains in the first quarter of 2009 and it is predicted that the perspective of automobile market in the second half of 2009 will be more hopeful.