快速公交客流量影响因素解释结构模型构建与应用

针对当前交通拥堵、能源紧张、尾气污染等一系列问题,为加快快速公共交通的发展、提高公共交通利用率,本文找出了影响快速公交客流的主要因素,利用系统工程学中的ISM方法,构建了快速公交客流系统解释结构模型,通过分析探讨快速公交客流的主要影响因素,进而明确了各因素间的清晰结构,得到影响快速公交客流量的5级递阶结构;最后找出影响快速公交客流因素的各影响因素.通过影响因素,建立了多元回归模型,从影响程度、影响方向、影响时期分别归类分析.通过分析各层级因素对快速公交客流量的影响,可引导更多居民选择快速公交出行,对缓解交通压力提供了一定方法指导和决策支持.并通过合理分析为快速公交运输服务提出了建议.

Modeling Bus Rapid Transit Passenger Flow Impact Factors its Application

With the rapid development of urban economy,the urban car ownership is increasing. Cars increasing mobility and accessibility,have also brought a series of problems such as traffic congestion,depletion of fossil fuels,air pollution. It is necessary to speed up the development of public transit,and improve the utilization rate of public transit. This paper first identifies the main factors that influence the bus rapid transit passenger flow; it then develops a bus rapid transit passenger flow estimating model by analyzing the main influence factors of bus rapid transit passenger flow; this paper eventually quantifies the factors influencing the bus rapid transit passenger flows. By analyzing the impact of various factors on the rapid transit traffic levels,this paper intends to provide guidance on improving public transit quality of service,and relieving traffic congestion.