| 基于组合模型的港口集装箱吞吐量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 马锡超,王璇,李海锋.基于组合模型的港口集装箱吞吐量预测[J].交通标准化,2009(3):74-77. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马锡超 王璇 李海锋 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中交天津港航勘察设计研究院有限公司,天津300450 [2]中国海洋大学工程学院,山东青岛266100 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据港口集装箱吞吐量的历史数据，分别利用三次指数平滑法、灰色CM（1，1）模型以及组合预测方法对集装箱吞吐量进行探讨，有益于预测未来几年港口集装箱吞吐量。结果证明：组合预测模型融合了前两种预测方法的优点．其平均绝对误差、平均相对误差绝对值都小于单独用三次指数平滑法或GM（1，1）模型时的平均绝对误差、平均相对误差绝对值，达到最优的精度等级。
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| 关 键 词： | 集装箱吞吐量 三次指数平滑法 GM(1 1)模型 组合预测 精度等级 |
Throughput Forecast of Port Container Based on Combined Model |
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| Institution: | MA Xi-chao, WANG Xuan, LI Hai-feng (1.CCCC Tianjin Survey Design and Research Institute of Harbor Waterway Company, Tianjin 300450, China; 2.Department of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the past data of port container throughput, the container throughput capacity of port is analyzed by using cubic exponential smoothing, GM（1,1） and combined forecast method, and the container throughputs are forecast in the next few years. The result shows that combined forecast model incorporates the advantages of the former methods, its mean absolute error, mean relative error are less than those when using cubic exponential smoothing or GM （1,1） respectively. Thus the combined forecast model obtains the best precision. |
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| Keywords: | container throughput cubic exponential smoothing GM（1 1） model combined forecast model accurate grade |
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