基于模糊综合评价法的有轨电车运营风险评估

为实现在不完备风险事件数据基础上对有轨电车运营风险的全面识别和评估，提出一种将风险事件历史数据与专家经验结合的运营风险评估方法。分析中国北方城市有轨电车运营风险事件信息，通过层次分析法识别并建立有轨电车运营关键风险因素评估体系，采用基于风险矩阵法与专家评价法的模糊综合评价法进行有轨电车运营风险综合评估。分析长春市有轨电车运营案例，结果表明：有轨电车运营总体风险可控，其中与车辆相撞、轨道异物入侵、恶劣天气、道岔与信号设备的风险较高，建议有关部门加强安全隔离设施的布设、人员出行行为的监管力度以及针对恶劣天气的提前预警与措施，并在日常运营中加强对关键设备的智能维护和健康管理。

Risk Assessment of Tram Operation Based on the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

In this study, an operation risk assessment method combining risk event history data and expert experience was proposed to comprehensively identify and assess tram operation risks based on incomplete risk event data. By analyzing the risk event information of tram operations in northern cities in China, a hierarchical analysis method was used to identify and establish an evaluation system for key risk factors in tram operations. Subsequently, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the risk matrix and expert evaluation methods was used to comprehensively evaluate tram operation risks. The case study of the Changchun tram operation showed that the overall risk of tram operation was acceptable, among which the risks of collision with vehicles, intrusion of foreign objects, bad weather, turnouts, and signal equipment were high. It is suggested that the relevant departments should strengthen the deployment of safety isolation facilities, supervision of personnel travel behavior, advance warnings and measures for bad weather, and intelligent maintenance and health management of key equipment in daily operations.