城市轨道交通初期运营客流预测技术研究

城市轨道交通新开通线路初期运营客流预测是开展初期运营安全评估和运营组织筹备的基础性工作。分析初期运营客流预测在预测期、研究对象、基础数据和预测模型方面的特点，总结该类预测工作开展的技术难点。在此基础上提出一套适用于初期运营客流预测的技术路线，阐述其中基础资料收集、交通调查、交通运行特征分析、出行需求预测、评估分析及敏感性分析的研究要点，并概括总结客流预测指标、对既有线的影响评估、需要重点关注的车站等研究内容。研究结果表明，初期运营客流预测重点在于准确把握城市及交通发展现状，而解读城市及交通发展现状资料并掌握其运行现状特点，研判其短期发展趋势是初期运营客流预测的基础性工作；针对宏观交通需求分析模型对微观客流指标预测的精度不足问题，可在城市宏观交通需求预测的基础上，通过开展各类交通调查建立城轨系统出行需求分析专题模型。本研究成果以期为初期运营客流预测的技术方法、研究内容等提供借鉴。

Passenger Flow Forecasting Technology for Initial Operationof Urban Rail Transit

Passenger flow forecasting for the initial operation stage of a new rail transit line is fundamental for operationalsafety assessment and organizational preparation. This study analyzes the characteristics of forecasting work in terms of theforecasting period, research objects, basic modeling data, and forecasting models. The technical difficulties in carrying out suchforecasting work are also summarized. Considering the characteristics and difficulties of forecasting, this study introduces a newforecasting framework, and the key procedures in the framework are then explained, including data collection, traffic surveys,analysis of the operational characteristics of urban transport, travel demand forecasting from macroscopic and intermediateperspectives, forecasting evaluation, and sensitivity analysis. Finally, the study also discusses main research points of forecastingwork with respect to network passenger flow indices, the impact of a new line on the existing network, and the necessaryconcerns of essential stations. It is suggested that the forecasting work should focus on the current state of urban systems. Thus, itis essential to collect and understand the current information on urban traffic and the city itself and to analyze short-term development trends. Because the macroscopic demand analysis models may have lower accuracy, it is also necessary to construct a thematicmodel for rail transit systems based on urban transport macroscopic demand analysis by conducting traffic surveys. The results ofthis study can provide references for technical methods and research content of passenger flow forecasting in the initial operation stage.