| 基于灰色残差GM（1，1）模型的汽车货运量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐安宁,王仙君.基于灰色残差GM（1，1）模型的汽车货运量预测[J].交通科技与经济,2009,11(4):18-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐安宁 王仙君 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 长安大学经济管理学院,陕西,西安,710064
2. 西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西,杨凌,712100 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对近年来我国汽车货运量增长迅速的特点，运用灰色系统预测模型GM（1，1）对某地汽车货运量趋势进行预测，通过残差GM（1，1）模型对主模型的修正，并用后验差检验法对模型精度进行分析和检验，得到一个精确度非常高的预测模型，该模型符合汽车货运量的预测，并在实际预测应用中取得较好效果。
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| 关 键 词： | GM（1 1）模型 残差GM（1 1）模型 汽车货运量 预测 |
The Forecast of the Volume Freight Based on the Residual Model of GM(1,1) |
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| TANG An-ning,WANG Xian-jun.The Forecast of the Volume Freight Based on the Residual Model of GM(1,1)[J].Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications,2009,11(4):18-19. |
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| Authors: | TANG An-ning WANG Xian-jun |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Economics and Management;Chan'an University;Xi'an 710064;China;2. School of Economics and Management;Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University of Science and Technology;Yangling 712100;Shanxi;China |
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| Abstract: | With the feature of rapid growth of Chinses volume freight in recent years,we use the prediction of model GM (1,1) to forecast the volume of freight,and use the method of testing difference to analyze and test the accuracy of the model.It gets a very high accuracy of prediction model type which is fully consistent with the prediction of the volume freight,and achieves good results in practical application of prediction. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) model residual GM(1 1) model volume of freight forecast |
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