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| 基于系统动力学的航空系统客运量预测模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈亚青,韩云祥. 基于系统动力学的航空系统客运量预测模型[J]. 交通与计算机, 2009, 27(5): 146-148 |
| 作者姓名： | 陈亚青 韩云祥 |
| 作者单位： | 中国民航飞行学院空中交通管理学院,四川,广汉,618307 |
| 基金项目： | 863计划项目(批准号:2006AA12A104);;中国民航局科研基金项目(批准号:RKXZD0710)资助 |
| 摘 要： | 为了得到理想的航空系统客运量预测结果，引入了系统动力学预测方法。在对航空运输系统主要因素及因果关系分析的基础上，建立了航空运输客运需求量系统动力学模型，并采用历史统计数据对模型进行了仿真和验证，结果证明该模型有效可行，可以较好地克服传统预测方法的不足之处。 |
| 关 键 词： | 航空运输系统 系统动力学 模型预测 |
Prediction Model of Passenger Capacity in Air Transport System Based on System Dynamics |
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| CHEN Yaqing,HAN Yunxiang. Prediction Model of Passenger Capacity in Air Transport System Based on System Dynamics[J]. Computer and Communications, 2009, 27(5): 146-148 | |
| Authors: | CHEN Yaqing HAN Yunxiang |
| Affiliation: | Air Traffic Management College;Civil Aviation Flight University of China;Guanghan 618307;Sichuan;China |
| Abstract: | The system dynamics method was applied to predicting the number of passengers in air transport system;it can also effectively solve the problems in traditional forecasting methods.The system dynamics demand model of air passenger transport was established based on the analysis of main factors and their relationships in the air transport system.The model was verified by simulation by using historical statistical data.The results show that the model is effective and feasible. |
| Keywords: | air transport system system dynamics model prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |