基于粗糙集-改进层次分析法对安县枇杷沟泥石流危险性的评价

由于影响泥石流的危险性的因素很多，且各因素的影响程度不尽相同，很难精准地对泥石流的危险性进行描述和定量分析。以安县枇杷沟为例，采用基于粗糙集-改进层次分析法综合定权和模糊数学理论，对泥石流的危险性进行了定性、定量评价。选取泥石流一次最大冲出量、流域面积、主沟长度、沟道两侧坡度、弯曲系数、流域相对高差、最大日降雨量、植被覆盖率、人口密度、松散固体物质储量共10项指标作为评价因子。评价结果表明，枇杷沟泥石流为轻度危险。该方法对泥石流的监测、防治具有现实意义。

Risk Assessment of Debris Flow at Loquat Gully in Anxian County Based on Rough Set-Improved AHP

There are many factors affecting risk of debris flow with different degrees of such influence, thus it is difficult to accurately describe this risk and carry out correct quantitative analysis. Taking the Loquat Gully in Anxian County as an example, with comprehensive weighing based on rough set - improved AHP and fuzzy mathematics theory, qualitative and quantitative evaluation were conducted in relation to risk of debris flow. Ten indices, including maximum amount, drainage area, main gully length, gradient of both sides, bending coefficient, drainage relative relief, maximum daily rainfall, vegetation coverage, population density, loose solid material reserves, were selected as the factors for evaluation. The evaluation result shows that the debris flow at Loquat Gully is of mild hazard. This evaluation method has practical significance against monitoring and controlling of debris flow.