城市轨道交通诱增客流量预测分析

介绍了城市轨道交通诱增客流量的定义及现有的预测模型,并指出其在应用中存在的问题。分析了城市轨道交通诱增客流量预测的难点,指出城市发展、常规公交、票价、线网规模、出行成本及交通政策是预测诱增交通客流量中需要考虑的主要因素。给出了城市轨道交通诱增交通量预测框架。

Analysis of URT Induced Passenger Flow Volume

With an inoroduction to the definition of induced passenger flow volume in urban rail transit(URT) ,the current traffic forecast model and its faults in application, this paper analyses the difficulties in forecasting the passenger flow in urban rail transit,holds that the main factors in forecasting should be city development, normal public traffic, price of ticket, scale of URT network, travel cost and traffic policy. This paper also discusses the framework of forecasting the induced passenger flow volume in URT.