高速客运专线客流分担率模型及其应用研究

目前,我国客运专线已在积极修建,2008年后,高速客运专线网将逐步形成,高速客运专线的建成将大幅度提高铁路的竞争能力。本文研究客运专线的建成对通道上其他运输方式的影响,即各种方式分担率的变化。Logit模型是预测运输通道上各种运输方式客流分担率的一种比较成熟的方法,它在交通运输领域有着广泛的应用。基于此,首先研究高速客运专线客流分担率模型(Logit模型),选择经济性、快速性、方便性、舒适度、安全性为5个衡量指标,并建立其广义费用函数,利用相关研究结果和极大似然估计法,确定模型参数,最后以北京~太原间各种运输方式的竞争为例来研究该模型的应用。结果显示建成后的北京~太原间高速客运专线将吸引大量客流,使铁路客流分担率增加10%。

The Mode Share Model of the High-speed Passenger Railway Line and Its Application

A network of high-speed passenger railways(HSPRs) are currently in planning and construction phases throughout China,and are set to begin operations in 2008.Under the current configuration of intercity passenger transport,the rail network receives substantial competition from bus and air travel modes on the many of the same corridors.It is expected that the railway mode share will increase significantly after the introduction of the HSPR.The objective of this paper is to predict the magnitude of these changes,and the concomitant impacts on the competing modes,for intercity travel between the cities of Beijing and Taiyuan.A logit model which is widely applied in the transportation research was used for the analysis which selected economy,speediness,convenience,comfort,safety as its 5 targets.The model predicts that the HSPR line between Beijing and Taiyuan will most significantly impact the road and aviation industry,drawing away a large number of passengers and increasing the railway mode share by 10%.