全球民航事故调查数据统计与分析

为探索全球民航事故的发生及调查规律,从航空安全网(ASN)采集626起事故调查数据,对事故发生季度、类型、机型等特征进行统计分析,同时对事故调查的实施机构、调查时长、各类事故调查时长等特征展开分析。结果发现:全球民航事故随运行时间的增加呈现波浪形缓慢下降;事故数量最多的前两位为冲偏出跑道和飞机失去控制,并多集中在第三季度(7-9月);波音公司各机型事故曲线整体类似,同时与空客公司各机型飞机事故曲线存在差异。民航事故调查从开始到发布报告的平均周期为26.1个月;各调查机构针对冲偏出跑道、失去控制、可控飞行撞地事故的平均调查周期分别为22.2、40.4、12.4个月。研究结果为民航事故预防政策制定及事故调查提供参考依据。

Statistical Analysis on Global Civil Aviation Accident Investigation Data

In order to examine the features and investigations of aviation accident in the world, 626 accident investigation data were collected from the aviation safety network(ASN), and the characteristics of accident season, type and aircrafts type were statistically analyzed. Meanwhile, the characteristics of accident investigation organization, investigation duration and investigation duration of all kinds of accidents were analyzed. The results show that the global civil aviation accidents show a wave downward relationship with the increase of operation time. Runway excursion、loss of control and hijack are the top two of high frequency accidents, and most of them happened in the third-quarter of a year. The accident curves of all Boeing are similar to each other, and are different from those of Airbus. The average investigation duration of each accident investigation is 26.1 months. The average investigation time of each investigation organization is 22.2, 40.4 and 12.4 months respectively represent Runway excursion, loss of control, Controlled Flight Into Terrain(CFIT). The research results provide reference for the civil aviation accident prevention policy and accident investigation.