城市出租车行业群发性事件风险预警方法

为实现对城市出租车行业的实时监测和预警,避免或减轻出租车行业群发性事件造成的不良影响,从出租车市场供给需求指标、市场价格与经营成本指标、市场经营环境指标、相关政策指标四个方面构建出租车行业群发性事件风险评估指标体系,利用层次分析法和加权平均法建立相应的风险评估模型,提出风险预警级别划分标准,并采用累积频率曲线法确定各风险等级的阈值。基于安徽省出租车行业近年来的出租车群发性事件对模型进行了标定,并以安徽省蚌埠市为例进行了应用验证,结果表明本文提出的方法具有较好的实用性,可实现对城市出租车行业群发性事件的风险预警和风险源的识别。

Forecast of Unexpected Mass Incident Risk in Urban Taxi Industry

To achieve real-time monitoring and early-warning of unexpected mass incident risk（UMIR） in a city taxi industry, an evaluation index system of the risk assessment for a taxi industry was built from four aspects of taxi market supply and demand indicators, market price and operating cost indexes, market environment indicators and the relevant policy indicators. Then, a relative risk assessment model was established using AHP and the weighted average method. After the risk classification standard was put forward and the levels of the risk thresholds were determined by the cumulative frequency curve method.Then, the all historical UMI in Anhui province were used to test the proposed model and a case analysis of Bangbu city was given to show the applicaton of the proposed method. The results showed that the proposed method was effective and practical for risk forecast and identification.