震后交通需求预测的修正四阶段法

将城市震后交通系统运行划分为两个阶段:震后应急阶段及震后恢复阶段,并根据地震环境下不同恢复阶段的社会经济活动及交通系统特性对传统交通预测四阶段法———出行产生、出行分布、方式划分、交通分配的宏观模型进行修正,讨论不同模型参数的变化趋势,建议参数的调整原则及方法,进而以修正四阶段法为基础进行震后交通需求预测。该方法简便易行,预测结果可对城市交通系统防灾规划提供决策依据。

Revised Four-stage Method for Post-earthquake Traffic Demand Forecast

In the paper,post-earthquake traffic processing is divided into three periods for urban transportation system,that is emergency period,restoration period and recovered period.Depending on the social economic activity and transportation character in different period,the traditional four-stage traffic demand estimation model,which includes traffic generation,traffic distribution,modal split and traffic assignment is advised.The changing tendency of different parameters in the models is discussed and the parameter adjustment principle and method are suggested.The advised four-stage method can be used to estimate the traffic distribution after earthquake and help the government make anti-disaster plan.