基于Monte-Carlo仿真的可修产品任务成功率#$NL计算方法及应用研究

当产品任务维修性设计允许其在线维修且任务剖面的时间要求具有一定的弹性时,通过理论方法计算产品任务成功率的解析解存在较大难度。针对该问题,首先梳理并分析了相关概念；然后,通过推理在线可维修产品完成任务时成功或失败概率事件过程,建立了基于Monte-Carlo仿真的任务成功率计算方法；最后,通过示例展示了方法的应用方向及有效性。

A Method and Application for Estimating Dependability of RepairableProducts Based on Monte-Carlo Simulation

In reliability engineering practice, we often face a kind of problems that the product is repairable and the mission time is flexible, when estimating or predicting the dependability of the product.It is difficult or impossible to derive theanalytic solutions for this kind of problems. To this question, the relevant terminologies are listed and analyzed, firstly. Then, the occurrence processes of the probabilistic events related to themission success or fail are derived. Based on this, a method based on Monte-Carlosimulation is proposed. Finally, examples are presented to demonstrate the availability of the proposed method to solve the problem.