出行距离分布模型及参数研究

为研究城市交通规划中出行距离的分布特征,在一定假设条件下,运用概率统计理论推导出行距离的概率分布函数形式,用10座城市的居民出行资料对其进行拟合,验证了该假设条件的合理性,分析了函数参数的相关影响因素,如城市规模、城市形状和交通结构等,对其进行量化与非线性回归,得到出行距离的概率分布函数的一般形式,最后,就不同规模城市分析了分布函数参数的取值范围。研究结果表明:出行距离的分布符合瑞利分布,特大城市和大中城市分布函数参数的取值范围分别为0.035～0.076和0.042～0.100。

Research on trip distance distribution model and parameter

To study the trip distance distribution character in urban traffic planning,trip distance distribution function was analyzed by using probability theory and statistics theory under some hypothesis conditions,and was fitted by using resident trip data of ten cities,the rationality of hypothesis conditions was tested,the effect factors of the function parameters were discussed such as urban scale,urban shape and traffic structure,a general function of trip distance distribution was established through quantitative analysis and nonlinear regression,and the parameter ranges of different urban scales were analyzed.Calculation result indicates that trip distance accords with Rayleigh distribution,the ranges of distribution function parameter are from 0.035 to 0.076 for megalopolis and from 0.042 to 0.100 for big and medium cities.6 tabs,3 figs,10 refs.