北京市机动车拥堵成本测算与分析

对北京市机动车拥堵成本的研究，可从经济上量化交通拥堵所产生的成本，从而为决策部门制定相关政策提供依据. 在详细阐述国内外机动车拥堵成本概况后，本文提出了拥堵的临界速度，分析了拥堵的各个子项成本，并建立时间、能耗、尾气三大子项成本的计算模型. 本文不但对2008年北京市机动车交通拥堵成本进行了测算并将结果与国外研究成果进行比对，而且对2009年北京市交通拥堵成本进行了预测和敏感性分析. 交通拥堵成本的经济化，有助于更加直观地分析拥堵成本与社会经济之间的关系，为缓解交通拥堵，实现低碳出行提供决策参考.

Calculation and Analysis of Traffic Congestion Cost in Beijing

In order to quantify the cost arising from traffic congestion of Beijing economically, and provide the basis for the decision-making departments to formulat correlated policy, the paper study on the traffic congestion cost in Beijing. After detailedly described the traffic congestion cost at home and abroad, this paper proposes the critical velocity, analyzes the sub-costs of traffic congestion, and establishes the calculation model of the three sub-items cost which are time, energy consumption and gas costs. This paper not only calculate the traffic congestion cost in Beijing in 2008 and compare it with overseas research, but also predicte the traffic congestion cost in Beijing in 2009 and do sensitivity analysis on it. The economization of the cost contribute to analyze the relationship between the traffic congestion cost and the socio-economic more intuitively, which can also provide reference for the decision-making of alleviate traffic congestion and the Realization of a low-carbon trip.