基于三次指数平滑法的建筑主材价格预测

工程建设项目一般周期较长，在招投标阶段如何预测和合理确定主要材料的价格对投标报价至关重要。随着施工的开展和主要材料价格的波动，合同价款的调整与幅度及风险分担，承发包双方往往存在不同意见或争执。为解决这一方面的问题，此文基于三次指数平滑法通过建立预测模型与分析，推导出计算公式。并以24mm热轧圆钢价格为样本对其中短期价格进行预测，预测结果表明，与实际价格的相对误差在3％左右，准确性较高，可以作为是否调整合同价款的依据。

Building Material Price Forecast Based on the Three Exponential Smoothing Method

The construction cycle of construction project is generally long, how to predict and reasonably determine the price of the main material of tender offer is very important in the bidding stage. With the development of the construction and the fluctuations of the main material price, contracting parties tend to have differ- ent opinions or dispute about the contract price adjustment amplitude and risk sharing. In order to solve the problems on the one hand, this article established the prediction model and deduced the calculation formula based on the three exponential smoothing methods. Taking 24 mm hot roiled round steel price for sample, the short- term price are forecasted. The results show that with the relative error between the forecasted price and the actual price is within 3 %. The presented method has higher accuracy and can be used as the basis of adjusting the contract price.