三峡船闸实际通过能力的一个动态模型*

为更好地掌握三峡船闸通航潜力,采用结构化和动态化的方法,建立了三峡船闸实际通过能力的动态化模型,描述货船载重吨、闸次、艘次、闸室面积利用率等参数与船闸通过能力的动态关系,计算2011—2030年三峡船闸实际通过能力,预计2015年后船闸通过能力将逐步饱和,船闸挖潜空间有限,建议抓紧优化标准船型系列,同时尽快开展新建通航设施的研究论证。

Dynamic model on traffic capacity of Three Gorges ship lock

Based on the structural and dynamic method, this paper sets up a dynamic model on the traffic capacity of the TGP ship lock to obtian the potential capacity, which describes the dynamic relationship between the cargo-boat tonnage, operating time, ship number, efficiency of using area with traffic capacity. The paper also calculates the traffic capacity of the TGP ship lock from 2011 to 2030, and forecasts that the traffic capacity of the TGP ship lock will be saturated after 2015, and advices to optimize the standard ships and start research and demonstration on the newly-built navigation facilities.