基于三角模糊数的高铁天窗施工实施效果评价

为提升高速铁路施工维修水平，减少列车运行延误，对施工计划的具体内容进行效果评价，能找出检修内容的薄弱环节，从而保证高铁设施设备质量状态及列车安全稳定的运行.以实际施工计划数据为基础，对现场施工计划进行影响因子提取，建立基于供电、控制设备、车站及线路及信号及通信设备等重点检修项目内容的评价体系；引入三角模糊数和模糊评价模型，建立施工项目内容的重要度判别矩阵，判断各因子在天窗施工计划中受到重视的程度；分析实际列车延误数据，提取合并与设备故障相关的延误致因，并证明了合并后因子间的独立性；以施工计划实施后仍产生的各类型设备故障及其导致的延误列车数为指标，评价施工计划项目实施效果；最后，以某铁路局实际天窗施工计划内容、列车延误数据为实例.研究结果表明:施工维修项目重视度与设备故障导致的列车运行延误数量、晚点程度成反比；对控制设备和供电设备的检修较为薄弱，这类设备的故障是列车运行延误和晚点多发源. 

Evaluation of High-Speed Railway Maintenance Plan Factors Based on Triangular Fuzzy Number

In order to improve the maintenance abilities of high speed railway and reduce train delays, an evaluation system is proposed based on actual maintenance plan data. Evaluation of the railway maintenance plan is supposed to identify any weak links and contribute to the safety of the operational environment. In this system, four key maintenance plan factors are identified:power supply, control system equipment, station infrastructure, and signal and communication equipment. The triangular fuzzy number and a fuzzy evaluation method are introduced to build an importance scale matrix for estimating the importance of these four factors in maintenance plans. Delays caused by equipment and infrastructure failures are extracted and combined based on real delayed train data. These factors are also proved to be independent. Factors causing delays and the number of delayed trains are used to quantitatively measure the effects of maintenance plan factors. Finally, maintenance plan data and delayed train data from the China Railway Company are used to verify the feasibility of the method. Results show that implementing a daily HSR maintenance plan has a positive effect on decreasing train delays. The amount of attention focused on the maintenance factors is inversely proportional to the delay situation. Maintenance of control equipment and power supply equipment is weak, which is the primary cause of train delays.