综合运输网络中的公路交通量分析与预测探讨

在综合运输网络中,公路与铁路、水运等运输方式间的竞争与协作关系日益复杂。而传统公路项目交通量预测往往从公路交通系统自身的角度出发,割裂了公路交通与其他运输方式之间的复杂关系,因而影响了预测结果的可靠性。本文以国道主干线上海至成都高速公路(沪蓉高速)麻城至武汉段为例,站在综合运输的全局角度,在全面分析公路、铁路运输特性及其对综合运输分担的影响的基础上,提出了综合运输网络下的公路项目交通量分析与预测方法,并在方式分担预测过程中创造性地引入了LOGIT模型修正系数以提高其可靠性,从而保证了交通量预测的精度和准确性,以利于客观反映出公路项目在综合运输网络中的客货运地位和作用。

Discussion About Traffic Volume Analysis and Forecasting for Highway in Comprehensive Transportation Network

The relationship between highway and other transportation modes(such as railway and etc.)becomes more and more complicated because of comprehensive transportation network nowadays.However,traditional traffic volume forecasting of highway always focuses on the characteristics of highway transportation system itself,and neglects the relationship between highway and other transportation modes.Therefore,un-negligible problems appear during the forecast process.On the basis of the analysis of the characteristics of highway transportation,railway transportation and their influence in comprehensive transportation network,a method of traffic volume forecasting for highway from comprehensive transportation point of view is put forward,which is taking Macheng-Wuhan Section of Shanghai-Chengdu Expressway for example.And the modification coefficient of LOGIT model is discussed in the paper,so that the forecast could be more rational and efficient.As a result,the function and status of the highway project in the comprehensive transportation network is confirmed.