基于灾害风险评估模型的铁路灾害监测预警系统研究

通过分析铁路事故统计数据,采用回归分析和灰色关联分析方法建立降雨量、风速和能见度等气象因素与事故发生概率的关系式;选取岩土类型、松散物质储量、流域面积、平均坡度和植被覆盖程度5个地质因素作为评价指标,建立基于层次分析法和多维标度法的铁路地质状况风险评估体系;借鉴风险矩阵表达方式,整合地质因素和气象因素,给出事故概率—危险度矩阵,建立铁路灾害风险评估模型。以铁路灾害风险评估模型为核心,构建由网络层、系统硬件层、数据资源层、信息处理层、应用层、业务层和访问层组成的铁路灾害监测预警系统,并接入铁路安全监控信息系统和中国气象科学数据共享服务网以及铁路局的相关信息系统,以很高、高、中和低4级风险强度表示方式将灾害风险评估的结果显示于铁路GIS地图上,能够提供直观、形象的铁路灾害预警信息。

Research on Railway Disaster Monitoring and Warning SystemBased on Disaster Risk Assessment Model

By analyzing the statistical data of railway accidents,the relationship of such meteorological factors as rainfall,wind,visibility and incident probability was established according to regression analysis and grey relational analysis.Five geological factors,namely,the type of rock and soil,loose material reserve,drainage area,average slope and vegetation coverage were selected as the assessment indexes.Railway geological conditions risk assessment system was established based on AHP and multidimensional scaling method.The risk matrix expression was used for reference to integrate the geological and meteorological factors.The accident probability-risk matrix was given and the railway disaster risk assessment model was established.With railway disaster risk assessment model as the core,railway disaster monitoring and warning system was established including network layer,system hardware layer,data resource layer,information processing layer,application layer,business layer and access layer.At the same time,the data were received from railway safety monitoring information systems,China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System and the related information system of railway bureau.With four levels of ultrahigh,high,medium and low to represent risk intensity,the results of disaster risk assessment were displayed on railway GIS map,which could provide direct and visual railway disaster warning information.