公交客流OD矩阵推算

公交客流OD矩阵是／2-交运营调度的基础，精确的客流OD才能保证运营计划科学的制定，人、车资源合理调配。为了提高推算精度，本文提出公交客流OD矩阵受居民公交出行特征、公交停靠站附近的用地性质和停靠站换乘功能影响。采用K-S检验对居民出行站数进行分析，发现出行站数服从泊松分布。结合各停靠站的上下车人数，推算得到基于居民出行特征的客流OD。根据公交站点的吸引系数和吸引权，得到基于停靠站附近用地性质的客流OD推算模型。作者认为停靠站的重要系数与该站作为起始、终点和中途停靠的线路数有关，据此建立了基于站点换乘功能的客流OD推算模型。利用层次分析法组合上述三种影响因素，得到最后的公交客流OD矩阵。实例分析结果表明该方法确实可以大幅度提高推算精度。

OD Matrix Estimation of Pubic Transportation Flow

Public traffic flow origin-destination matrix is the basis of public transport scheduling. Only the accurate traffic flow OD can ensure the scientific operation plans and rational utilization of the staffs and vehicles. To improve the estimation precision, the paper put forward an idea that traffic flow OD was affected by trip characteristics,land use and transferring function around the bus stops. A K-S test was adopted to analyze the station numbers of the public trip and the result showed that it follows the poisson distribution. Considering the passengers＇ number boarding and alighting the stop, an OD estimation based on trip characteristics was presented; The paper also attracting coefficients, attracting weights and got the OD matrix estimation use; It put forward that the stop significant coefficient is related to the bus proposed the based on land routes using the stop as starting, ending or midway ones, and then the OD estimation based on transferring function was presellted. AHP was used to combine the three influence factors above and obtained the last ODmatrix estimation. Some real data were applied to check the algorithm＇ s availability, and the results proved that the method ig feasible to enhance the precision.